从世界水电发展趋势看缅甸水电开发(英文版)
2012/3/29 7:19:13 新闻来源:中国水力发电工程学会
Hydropower Implementation in Myanmar in the Trend of Global Hydropower Development
Hydropower generation is a process in which the water potential is converted into
mechanical energy and
then into electric energy. More specifically, it refers to the process in which a
hydropower plant is built
on a river to harness the water fall to propel the hydraulic turbine to drive the
generator to produce
electricity,
and then the water returns to the river channel for downstream use. One of the main
in hydropower
generation is to dam a river to raise the water level for storage of water potential.
Man has long known that the construction of dams can bring benefits. The earliest dam
that can be found in record
is a masonry dam built by the ancient Egyptians across the Nile with a height of 15m
in 2900 BC. for supplying water
to Memphis, the Capital City at that time.
The oldest dam that is still in use is located in Iraq, which was built in 1300 BC.
Power generation, a new function of dam, was realized after the first hydropower plant
was constructed by the French in 1878.
Hydropower, with its advantage of cleanness, high efficiency, recyclability and low
operational cost, has acted as an
industrial propellant since its emergence and gained momentum with the development
of modern civilization. Statistics show
that the installed capacity of hydropower worldwide jumped from 72000MW in 1950 to
674000MW in 1998, 8.36 times up, and it
ranks second among all kinds of power generation, only next to thermal power.
The overall hydropower generation worldwide also leaped from 336 billion kwh in 1950
to 2643 billion kwh in 1998, 6.87 times up.
In view of the world’s developable electric power output of 8082 billion kwh, the development ratio of
hydropower resources which was only 4.15% in
1950 has climbed to 32.7% in 1998.
The world economy has progressed rapidly since the 1950s. Statistics show that the
world’s GDP was USD 1075.8 billion in 1950 and USD 29844.5 billion in 1998, showing an
increase by 27.7 times, with a comparable increase
by 4.75 times.
Reviewing the tremendous impact on human life by the new technologies such as the
auto industry, aviation, television, mobile phones
and the Internet, we will realize the remarkable changes occurred to the planet we
live on, and all these changes are closely related
with electricity.
With the soaring development of the world economy and the increasing
emergence of
new inventions and creations, the world has entered
a new electrical era with growing demand for electricity. Detailed study of the
development history of hydropower generation in some major
countries further demonstrates that hydropower development is closely linked wi
th economic development.
The United Sates, the only superpower in the world now, has a history of hydropower
development of more than 100 years. Statistics reveal
the installed capacity of hydropower in the US was 4800MW in 1920, and 18674MW in
1950; the installed capacity of conventional hydropower
amounted to 75,525 MW in 1998. The GDP per capita of the US in 1950 was 2.05 times
that in 1920 (comparable purchasing power); the GDP per
capita of the US in 1998 was 2.82 times that in 1950 (comparable purchasing power).
This shows the faster development in hydropower than
in economic growth.
In 1950, Brazil only has a hydropower installed capacity of 1540MW, ranking twelfth
in the world. In 1998, the country climbed to the fourth
rank with a hydropower installed capacity of 56,481MW. During this period, Brazil
witnessed a comparable growth in GDP per capita by 3.93 times
and in overall GDP by 12.3 times. Hydropower accounts for 92.1% in Brazil in terms
of installed capacity and 93.5% in terms of annual electricity
generation in 1998. As can be seen, development of hydropower resources offers Brazil
not only inexhaustible clean energy for fast economic growth
but also the opportunity to make way into BRICS countries.
Norway constructed its first small-scale hydropower station in 1885. Its installed capacity was 2900MW in 1950 and soared
up to 27,410MW in 1998. In spite of Norway’s abundant oil resources, the hydropower installed capacity accounted for 98.9% of its
overall installed capacity of electricity in 1998, and the
electricity generated by hydropower amounted to 116.3 billion kW•h, accounting for 99.4%
of the total electricity generation. The GDP per capita of
Norway has constantly ranked among the top in the world.
Conclusion can be drawn from the study of the history of hydropower development in some
countries that when the GDP per capita reaches about USD800,
the hydropower industry will enter its rapid development period, such as the case of the
US with the GDP per capita of USD830 in 1920 and Brazil with
USD821 in 1950, respectively. When China launched hydropower development in the western
regions in the beginning of the 21st century, its GDP per capita
in 2000 was USD856, as compared with USD451 in 1994 when the construction of the Three
Gorges Hydropower Project was commenced.
The new Myanmar government has endeavored to realize the domestic democracy, improve its
international environment and promote economic growth since it
took office one year ago, winning acclaim both home and abroad. Myanmar formulated its
fifth five-year development plan, in which the GDP is expected to grow at the rate of
10.5% from
2011/2012 to 2015/2016. According to the IMF data, the GDP per capita
in Myanmar was USD582 in 2010. In accordance with the development plan, this figure
will increase to about USD1000 in 2016. Based on the development experience
of the other countries, the fifth five-year development period will just be the beginning of Myanmar’s industrialization, and the end of the fifth or the beginning of the sixth five-year development period will bring the country into speedy development of
industrialization in which the demand for electricity will grow simultaneously and
tremendously.
With a population of 65 million and to meet the installed capacity per capita of 1kW
when industrialization was completed in the western countries, the total
installed capacity in Myanmar should reach about 65000MW. However the actual total
installed capacity in the country is about 3200 MW, which obviously fails
to meet the requirement for development.
Myanmar is abundant in hydropower resources with a capacity exceeding 100,000MW and
its utilization ratio is only 2.45%. This ratio is considerably low in view
of the country’s economic development status and the long-term development plan. To meet the need for economic growth, Myanmar formulated the
medium and long-term power development plan which gave priority to hydropower
implementation based
on its future economic development plan and national conditions.
At present, Myanmar does not have the capability for independent implementation
of large-scale hydropower projects due to its technical and economical level,
and cannot consume
all the electricity generated by the projects in the short run. After serious
study, Myanmar chooses to develop its hydropower resources by cooperating with the
neighboring countries such as India, China and Thailand that have strong economic
and technical strength and can consume the large amount of electricity generated,
enabling the flowing water to provide inexhaustible energy and create foreign exchange
earnings to boost its economic development.
To satisfy the electricity need for its economic growth, Myanmar, based on its forecast
of economic development in the future, has stipulated in the MOA signed with the
relevant project companies that a certain amount of electricity is to be provided
for Myanmar free of charge during the concession operation period after power generation.
If Myanmar cannot consume this amount of power, the surplus power, together with the other
power, will be sold abroad for foreign exchange earnings. If the free power cannot
meet the domestic need, Myanmar has the priority of purchasing a certain portion of power.
Upon expiration of the concession operation period, Myanmar will have the ownership
of the projects and the generated electricity.
The reason for Myanmar’s priority given to hydropower development lies not only in its role in power supply
and foreign exchange earnings but also in its promotion of local infrastructure construction
and economical development. On one hand, high grade highways, hydrological station networks,
earthquake networks, communication networks, etc. are required for construction of
large hydropower projects. On the other hand, construction of the hydropower projects will
create new job opportunities and boost relevant industrial development such as daily
supplies and production materials.
The Ayeyawady River, with a drainage area of 410,000 km2 that accounts for about 60% of
the total land, is regarded as the cradle of civilization and the mother river in Myanmar.
The ancient capital cities of the old dynasties such as Bagan, Prome and Mandalay were all
distributed along this mother river. Calculated from the confluence of the Maykha and Malikha,
the length of the Ayeyawady River is 2714km; calculated from the eastern source – Jitaiqu in Tibet, China, it is 3244km long, the 17th longest river in the world. It has an
annual average discharge of 15,400m3/s at the estuary and ranks 16th in discharge worldwide.
The Ayeyawady River is abundant in hydropower. Considering its drainage area of less than
50,000km2 upstream Myitkyina alone, the Ayeyawady River is estimated to have a planned installed
capacity of 20000MW. This figure will exceed 25000MW, accounting for over one fourth of the
developable installed capacity nationwide, if the tributaries are included. When fully developed,
it will provide 130 billion kWh green electricity annually.
Though abundant in hydropower, the Ayeyawady River has not been fully developed; only several
small-scale and medium-scale power stations have been constructed across its tributaries. Compared with other large
rivers in
the world, this river is at lower level in hydropower development, which results in the
inadequate utility
of hydropower resources on one hand and the lack of large reservoirs for water regulation
on the other hand.
Consequently, floods easily occur in wet seasons while in dry season, there is no sufficient
water to meet
the needs for living and production.
To make good use of the upstream hydropower resources in the Ayeyawady River, Myanmar has
invited many
companies from Japan, China and so forth to conduct master planning and research on
development of the
drainage area and finally adopted the plan proposed by CPI.
In addition to its engineering and technical advantages, the plan proposed by CPI
also has the following
advantages. Firstly, targeting on full utilization of hydropower resources, CPI’s plan has the largest installed capacity and largest amount of electricity output.
Secondly, it can improve
the flood control in Myitkyina; the flood control standard in Myitkyina will be imp
roved to once in twenty
years due to the regulation of Myitsone reservoir. Thirdly, the plan realizes water
regulation and storage to
certain extent. The total effective water storage of the 7 cascade reservoirs is about
13.1 billion m3. Although
it only accounts for 8.27% of the average annual runoff at the Myitsone damsite and
2.7% of that at the estuary
(much lower than the water storage ratio for the large rivers in the world such as
the Parana River in South America,
Tennessee River in North America and Zambia River in Africa, it can still play an
important role in cutting down the
flood peak and increasing water flow in dry season, by way of comprehensive regulation.
The Ayeyawady River has fostered the diligent, kind and courageous people along the banks
for thousands of years. In
the future, it will provide its people with inexhaustible and clean energy for realization
of prosperity of the nation
with the development of its huge potential water resources.
(Written by: Yi Jiangyan)
Hydropower generation is a process in which the water potential is converted into
mechanical energy and
then into electric energy. More specifically, it refers to the process in which a
hydropower plant is built
on a river to harness the water fall to propel the hydraulic turbine to drive the
generator to produce
electricity,
and then the water returns to the river channel for downstream use. One of the main
in hydropower
generation is to dam a river to raise the water level for storage of water potential.
Man has long known that the construction of dams can bring benefits. The earliest dam
that can be found in record
is a masonry dam built by the ancient Egyptians across the Nile with a height of 15m
in 2900 BC. for supplying water
to Memphis, the Capital City at that time.
The oldest dam that is still in use is located in Iraq, which was built in 1300 BC.
Power generation, a new function of dam, was realized after the first hydropower plant
was constructed by the French in 1878.
Hydropower, with its advantage of cleanness, high efficiency, recyclability and low
operational cost, has acted as an
industrial propellant since its emergence and gained momentum with the development
of modern civilization. Statistics show
that the installed capacity of hydropower worldwide jumped from 72000MW in 1950 to
674000MW in 1998, 8.36 times up, and it
ranks second among all kinds of power generation, only next to thermal power.
The overall hydropower generation worldwide also leaped from 336 billion kwh in 1950
to 2643 billion kwh in 1998, 6.87 times up.
In view of the world’s developable electric power output of 8082 billion kwh, the development ratio of
hydropower resources which was only 4.15% in
1950 has climbed to 32.7% in 1998.
The world economy has progressed rapidly since the 1950s. Statistics show that the
world’s GDP was USD 1075.8 billion in 1950 and USD 29844.5 billion in 1998, showing an
increase by 27.7 times, with a comparable increase
by 4.75 times.
Reviewing the tremendous impact on human life by the new technologies such as the
auto industry, aviation, television, mobile phones
and the Internet, we will realize the remarkable changes occurred to the planet we
live on, and all these changes are closely related
with electricity.
With the soaring development of the world economy and the increasing
emergence of
new inventions and creations, the world has entered
a new electrical era with growing demand for electricity. Detailed study of the
development history of hydropower generation in some major
countries further demonstrates that hydropower development is closely linked wi
th economic development.
The United Sates, the only superpower in the world now, has a history of hydropower
development of more than 100 years. Statistics reveal
the installed capacity of hydropower in the US was 4800MW in 1920, and 18674MW in
1950; the installed capacity of conventional hydropower
amounted to 75,525 MW in 1998. The GDP per capita of the US in 1950 was 2.05 times
that in 1920 (comparable purchasing power); the GDP per
capita of the US in 1998 was 2.82 times that in 1950 (comparable purchasing power).
This shows the faster development in hydropower than
in economic growth.
In 1950, Brazil only has a hydropower installed capacity of 1540MW, ranking twelfth
in the world. In 1998, the country climbed to the fourth
rank with a hydropower installed capacity of 56,481MW. During this period, Brazil
witnessed a comparable growth in GDP per capita by 3.93 times
and in overall GDP by 12.3 times. Hydropower accounts for 92.1% in Brazil in terms
of installed capacity and 93.5% in terms of annual electricity
generation in 1998. As can be seen, development of hydropower resources offers Brazil
not only inexhaustible clean energy for fast economic growth
but also the opportunity to make way into BRICS countries.
Norway constructed its first small-scale hydropower station in 1885. Its installed capacity was 2900MW in 1950 and soared
up to 27,410MW in 1998. In spite of Norway’s abundant oil resources, the hydropower installed capacity accounted for 98.9% of its
overall installed capacity of electricity in 1998, and the
electricity generated by hydropower amounted to 116.3 billion kW•h, accounting for 99.4%
of the total electricity generation. The GDP per capita of
Norway has constantly ranked among the top in the world.
Conclusion can be drawn from the study of the history of hydropower development in some
countries that when the GDP per capita reaches about USD800,
the hydropower industry will enter its rapid development period, such as the case of the
US with the GDP per capita of USD830 in 1920 and Brazil with
USD821 in 1950, respectively. When China launched hydropower development in the western
regions in the beginning of the 21st century, its GDP per capita
in 2000 was USD856, as compared with USD451 in 1994 when the construction of the Three
Gorges Hydropower Project was commenced.
The new Myanmar government has endeavored to realize the domestic democracy, improve its
international environment and promote economic growth since it
took office one year ago, winning acclaim both home and abroad. Myanmar formulated its
fifth five-year development plan, in which the GDP is expected to grow at the rate of
10.5% from
2011/2012 to 2015/2016. According to the IMF data, the GDP per capita
in Myanmar was USD582 in 2010. In accordance with the development plan, this figure
will increase to about USD1000 in 2016. Based on the development experience
of the other countries, the fifth five-year development period will just be the beginning of Myanmar’s industrialization, and the end of the fifth or the beginning of the sixth five-year development period will bring the country into speedy development of
industrialization in which the demand for electricity will grow simultaneously and
tremendously.
With a population of 65 million and to meet the installed capacity per capita of 1kW
when industrialization was completed in the western countries, the total
installed capacity in Myanmar should reach about 65000MW. However the actual total
installed capacity in the country is about 3200 MW, which obviously fails
to meet the requirement for development.
Myanmar is abundant in hydropower resources with a capacity exceeding 100,000MW and
its utilization ratio is only 2.45%. This ratio is considerably low in view
of the country’s economic development status and the long-term development plan. To meet the need for economic growth, Myanmar formulated the
medium and long-term power development plan which gave priority to hydropower
implementation based
on its future economic development plan and national conditions.
At present, Myanmar does not have the capability for independent implementation
of large-scale hydropower projects due to its technical and economical level,
and cannot consume
all the electricity generated by the projects in the short run. After serious
study, Myanmar chooses to develop its hydropower resources by cooperating with the
neighboring countries such as India, China and Thailand that have strong economic
and technical strength and can consume the large amount of electricity generated,
enabling the flowing water to provide inexhaustible energy and create foreign exchange
earnings to boost its economic development.
To satisfy the electricity need for its economic growth, Myanmar, based on its forecast
of economic development in the future, has stipulated in the MOA signed with the
relevant project companies that a certain amount of electricity is to be provided
for Myanmar free of charge during the concession operation period after power generation.
If Myanmar cannot consume this amount of power, the surplus power, together with the other
power, will be sold abroad for foreign exchange earnings. If the free power cannot
meet the domestic need, Myanmar has the priority of purchasing a certain portion of power.
Upon expiration of the concession operation period, Myanmar will have the ownership
of the projects and the generated electricity.
The reason for Myanmar’s priority given to hydropower development lies not only in its role in power supply
and foreign exchange earnings but also in its promotion of local infrastructure construction
and economical development. On one hand, high grade highways, hydrological station networks,
earthquake networks, communication networks, etc. are required for construction of
large hydropower projects. On the other hand, construction of the hydropower projects will
create new job opportunities and boost relevant industrial development such as daily
supplies and production materials.
The Ayeyawady River, with a drainage area of 410,000 km2 that accounts for about 60% of
the total land, is regarded as the cradle of civilization and the mother river in Myanmar.
The ancient capital cities of the old dynasties such as Bagan, Prome and Mandalay were all
distributed along this mother river. Calculated from the confluence of the Maykha and Malikha,
the length of the Ayeyawady River is 2714km; calculated from the eastern source – Jitaiqu in Tibet, China, it is 3244km long, the 17th longest river in the world. It has an
annual average discharge of 15,400m3/s at the estuary and ranks 16th in discharge worldwide.
The Ayeyawady River is abundant in hydropower. Considering its drainage area of less than
50,000km2 upstream Myitkyina alone, the Ayeyawady River is estimated to have a planned installed
capacity of 20000MW. This figure will exceed 25000MW, accounting for over one fourth of the
developable installed capacity nationwide, if the tributaries are included. When fully developed,
it will provide 130 billion kWh green electricity annually.
Though abundant in hydropower, the Ayeyawady River has not been fully developed; only several
small-scale and medium-scale power stations have been constructed across its tributaries. Compared with other large
rivers in
the world, this river is at lower level in hydropower development, which results in the
inadequate utility
of hydropower resources on one hand and the lack of large reservoirs for water regulation
on the other hand.
Consequently, floods easily occur in wet seasons while in dry season, there is no sufficient
water to meet
the needs for living and production.
To make good use of the upstream hydropower resources in the Ayeyawady River, Myanmar has
invited many
companies from Japan, China and so forth to conduct master planning and research on
development of the
drainage area and finally adopted the plan proposed by CPI.
In addition to its engineering and technical advantages, the plan proposed by CPI
also has the following
advantages. Firstly, targeting on full utilization of hydropower resources, CPI’s plan has the largest installed capacity and largest amount of electricity output.
Secondly, it can improve
the flood control in Myitkyina; the flood control standard in Myitkyina will be imp
roved to once in twenty
years due to the regulation of Myitsone reservoir. Thirdly, the plan realizes water
regulation and storage to
certain extent. The total effective water storage of the 7 cascade reservoirs is about
13.1 billion m3. Although
it only accounts for 8.27% of the average annual runoff at the Myitsone damsite and
2.7% of that at the estuary
(much lower than the water storage ratio for the large rivers in the world such as
the Parana River in South America,
Tennessee River in North America and Zambia River in Africa, it can still play an
important role in cutting down the
flood peak and increasing water flow in dry season, by way of comprehensive regulation.
The Ayeyawady River has fostered the diligent, kind and courageous people along the banks
for thousands of years. In
the future, it will provide its people with inexhaustible and clean energy for realization
of prosperity of the nation
with the development of its huge potential water resources.
(Written by: Yi Jiangyan)