Travis Hoium

徐金巾 译

　　在这十年里，随着风能和太阳能的迅猛发展，可再生能源逐渐被全球所认知，自巴黎协定的签订，更加奠定了可再生能源的地位，势必要从传统能源向可再生能源转变。然而，是使用可再生能源还是继续传统能源一直是美国争议的热点问题。

　　如果单从成本角度来看，新建一个可再生能源发电厂的成本确实要比传统能源低很多。投资银行Lazard数据分析显示，建造一个行业领先的太阳能发电厂（50至60美元/每兆瓦时）或风电场（32至77美元/每兆瓦时）的成本远远低于建造一个天然气厂（52至78美元/每兆瓦时）或燃煤电厂（65至150美元/每兆瓦时）。

　　如果美国决定建造一个新的发电厂，建设风能和太阳能可能是更加经济的选择。但是关键在于建设"新"发电厂，美国的大多数发电厂都不是新的，所以发展可再生能源就意味着要与六十年代建成的煤电厂竞争。但是，根据EIA数据显示，美国电力消费从2014年的1031亿千瓦小时下降到2017年的1028亿千瓦时。显然，在电力消费停滞不前的情况下，建设新发电厂的可能性并不大。

　　可再生能源无法与现有电厂竞争

　　可再生能源很难与现有发电厂竞争。根据下图数据显示，天然气和煤炭发电成本为每兆瓦时20至25美元，这对于新的风力发电厂或太阳能发电厂来说几乎是不可能的。

　　下图（左）标明美国燃煤电厂建成时间和淘汰时间。可以看出，大部分电厂已经建成超过30年，部分已经超过半个世纪。下图（右）计算发电成本，不难看出，这些老的电厂为美国提供更低的发电成本。

　　可再生能源在发展中国家蓬勃发展

　　然而，在拉丁美洲和亚洲的许多发展中国家情况截然相反。随着电力消费的不断增长与环境问题带来的困扰，他们不得不找到更加清洁便宜的能源。显然，可再生能源在发展中国家更具竞争力。

　　在拉丁美洲和亚洲的许多发展中国家电力需求不断增长。根据EIA，中国的电力需求自2005年到2013年之间翻了一番以上，墨西哥的需求从2004年到2014年增长了25％。这种电力需求的增长是中国成为全球风能和太阳能领域的领导者的一个重要原因。由于智利，阿根廷和巴西的电力需求也在迅猛增长，今年拉丁美洲宣布了大量新的可再生能源项目。

　　美国如何赢得可再生能源

　　虽然美国发展可再生能源存在巨大挑战，但这并不意味着没有机会，一些潜在因素正在驱动社会向可再生能源转变。

　　一些大型企业已经开始采用可再生能源为其设施供电。例如，苹果、亚马逊、微软和许多其他大公司都直接从发电厂购买能源，这将带动更多大型企业走可再生能源道路。

　　消费者可以主动选择采用可再生能源，驱动社会结构调整。消费者可以从社区选择是否用太阳能或者风能，虽然有时候账单会高于传统能源的电费单，但是目前这种可选择的电力消费已经建立并普及。

　　消费者选择用可再生能源发电是拉动美国可再生能源发展的重要因素，比如在住户屋顶安装太阳能或者风能发电设备。按照零售发电比率计算，在美国平均屋顶太阳能发电13美分/千瓦时，这相对传统能源而言是一个比较可观的价格。

　　Why Latin America and China Are Beating the U.S. in Renewable Energy

　　Renewable energy in the U.S. isn't as strong as it is in developing cuuntries, and it's important to understand why.

　　Travis Hoium (TMFFlushDraw) Nov 26, 2016 at 8:34AM

　　Wind and solar energy have come a long way in the last decade and are now competitive with fossil fuels in a large percentage of the world. An analysis by investment bank Lazard estimates that as of last fall, the cost to build an industry-leading solar plant ($50 to $60 per MWh) or wind farm ($32 to $77 per MWh) was less than building a gas combined cycle ($52 to $78 per MWH) or coal plant ($65 to $150 per MWh). And since last fall, the cost of wind and solar plants have fallen even further, now approaching $30 per MWh in competitive bids. You may think this dynamic would lead to a windfall of projects for U.S. developers like SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR), First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR), and the new solar developments of the Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA)-SolarCity combo. But they're all struggling to find growth, and 2017 looks like a down year for most of the industry.

　　The low cost of renewable energy is great, and if a utility is building a new plant, wind and solar would likely be an economical choice. But the key word in that sentence is "new." Most power plants in the U.S. aren't new, so renewable energy is competing against coal plants built in the 1950s, and consumption isn't growing, so there's no need for more generation. In developing cuuntries in Latin America or Asia, the dynamic is different. They need all the energy they can get, and renewables are competitive. And that's why they'll likely dominate the U.S. in renewable energy over the next decade.

　　Solar And Wind Farm

　　IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.

　　Why renewables have a hard time competing on cost alone

　　Wind and solar energy is competitive with natural gas, coal, or nuclear when utilities are looking for new generation. But the charts below show why renewable energy has a hard time competing against existing power plants. Natural gas and coal costs are $20 to $25 per MWh, which is nearly impossible for new wind or solar plants to compete with.

　　Chart

　　IMAGE SOURCE: U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION.

　　If you look closely at when plants were built, it's easy to see why. Below is a chart showing when coal plants in the U.S. were built, and you can see that the vast majority are over 30 years old, and some are over half a century old. This gives them a very low cost basis for generating power.

　　Chart

　　IMAGE SOURCE: U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION.

　　The problem is that wind and solar need to replace these old plants because U.S. electricity consumption simply isn't growing. According to the EIA, retail sales of electricity will actually decline from 10.31 billion kWh in 2014 to 10.28 billion kWh in 2017.

　　Why renewables are booming in emerging markets

　　While U.S. electricity consumption is stagnant, Latin America and China are growing. According to the EIA, China's electricity demand more than doubled between 2005 and 2013, and Mexico's demand grew 25% from 2004 to 2014. This growth is a big reason China is the world's leader in wind and solar energy, and why Latin America has seen a flood of new renewable projects announced this year. cuuntries across Latin America like Chile, Argentina, and Brazil are also seeing increased electricity demand, which is a big driver of their renewable energy growth.

　　What separates the growth is renewables in these isn't that they have more of a desire to build wind and solar. It's that they're in need of new electricity generation, and wind and solar are cost-competitive ways to get that energy. The U.S doesn't need new electricity generation, so wind and solar aren't competing with new coal or natural gas plants, they're competing with plants that were built decades ago and have a much lower cost basis.

　　Where the U.S. can win in renewable energy

　　You can see that in places where there isn't a structure driving renewable energy development at the utility scale, it will be challenging to move projects forward. But that doesn't mean there aren't opportunities, and three growth drivers are worth watching.

　　Corporate customers are increasingly buying wind and solar energy to power their facilities. Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and dozens of other major corporations are buying energy directly from power plants, which will drive more adoption.

　　Customers are demanding choice as well, driving structures like community solar and renewable energy purchasing options from utilities. Despite sometimes having higher prices than a traditional electricity bill, these structures have increased in popularity.

　　Consumer generation of electricity on-site will also be a key component to renewable energy growth. This is residential rooftop solar and solar or wind power installed on-site at corporations. The cost of these installations aren't compared to the coal or natural gas costs I highlighted above, they're compared to the retail rate, which averages 13 cents per kWh in the U.S. It's a much more compelling economic value to install solar on your roof given the higher cost base comparison.